On the cusp of the peak hurricane season, forecasters are watching a tropical wave just off the coast of Africa that could become a tropical depression in the next few days.

The mass of thunderstorms has become more organized over the past day and has a 30 to 50 percent chance of developing further, according to the National Hurricane Center.

NBC17 Hurricane Tracker

The wave is moving west at 10 to 15 mph and is still east of the Cape Verde Islands with winds of about 25 mph. It is about 3,900 miles east of Miami.

Computer forecast models project the wave could reach tropical storm strength by mid-week and continue growing in strength until Thursday or Friday, peaking at about 65 mph before losing intensity.

None of the computer models at this point show it reaching hurricane strength. There is an area of slightly cooler water in its projected path that could stunt its growth.

If the models prove accurate, the tropical wave would become the season's first named storm. It would be called Ana.

A second tropical low (see picture) near South America has formed, but forecasters do not expect it to develop.

So far, this year has seen only one tropical depression that took hurricane center forecasters by surprise when it formed May 28 about 175 miles northeast of Cape Hatteras, N.C. Forecasters expected the low pressure area that became the depression to move over cooler water and gave it less than a 30 percent chance of developing.

But it remained over the Gulf Stream longer than forecast, giving it enough fuel to become a depression. But its winds never reached tropical storm strength.

The depression didn't even last long enough to reach the official June 1 start of hurricane season. It fell apart May 30.

The tropical wave that now has the attention of forecasters is the first system in the prime hurricane development area to show enough potential organization to develop into a storm or depression.

It is about right on schedule for the pattern hurricane seasons follow as the best area for hurricanes to form shifts around the middle of August to the tropical Atlantic Ocean between the Cape Verde Islands and the Caribbean Sea.

The peak of the hurricane season usually runs from the middle of August through the middle of October.

During the season's first 10 weeks, the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean are the main areas for storms to form. A typical season usually sees one or two storms developing in those regions.

This year, an El Niño is generating winds blowing from the west high in the atmosphere. Those winds have been disrupting any storms that have tried to develop.